According to the latest quotation from PV infolink on November 23, the price of polysilicon dropped this week, with the average price falling from 42.37 USD/kg to 42.22 USD/kg, a drop of 0.3%. This is also the first time that polysilicon prices have declined this year.
Domestic upstream industrial silicon production capacity has recently increased significantly. In addition, downstream demand has stabilized. Many polysilicon manufacturers have successively increased silicon material output to ease the tight supply and demand situation. Industry analysts believe that although it is difficult for the price of crystalline silicon to fall off a cliff in a short period of time, the price has begun to show signs of decline.
The supply of silicon in the upstream industry is loose, and silicon material manufacturers have stepped up their efforts to start production, which has the potential for overcapacity. Data show that in October, domestic industrial silicon production totaled 300,200 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 14.93%. At present, the supply of industrial silicon is relatively loose, the inventory remains high, and the downstream demand is weak except for polysilicon. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will drop slightly in the short term. This also means that the cost of polysilicon manufacturers is expected to be further reduced. Another factor that cannot be ignored is that with major domestic polysilicon players greatly expanding their production capacity this year, the newly expanded polysilicon production capacity is expected to be released at an accelerated pace in the fourth quarter.
Overall, the growth rate of polysilicon production capacity may be higher than that of the downstream. By 2023, with the continuous release of new polysilicon production capacity, the price of polysilicon may be pulled back from a high level, thereby driving down the price of the photovoltaic industry chain.
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