At the same time, I saw two pieces of news about the rapid growth of solar plant: the revenue of Sungrow Power increased from 3.062 billion to 13.5 billion in just 5 years, and Dongfang Risheng “from 2014 to 2017, the company’s revenue from less than 3 billion Medium-sized enterprises are rapidly growing into large enterprises with revenue exceeding 10 billion." In the past five years in the photovoltaic industry, there are many similar fast-growing companies.
In an industry, if a company is sustained and rapid growth, it should be excellent. If multiple enterprises are sustained and rapid growth at the same time, in addition to being excellent, it should be that the enterprise is in the period of industry growth.
When summarizing the success reasons of successful companies, successful entrepreneurs often put the "wind stage" in the first place. Just like Lei Jun said that pigs can fly when standing in the wind. With the Internet, there are Baidu, Tencent and Ali; with the mobile Internet, there are Xiaomi, Meituan and Didi.
The period of general industry is 3-5 years, rarely exceeding 10 years. The solar industry is a special case, with at least 20 years remaining in the tuyere period. This is because:
The cost of solar power generation has at least a 20-year period of decline. Bloomberg New Energy Finance released the 2019 "New Energy Outlook": Since 2010, the cost of battery blocks has fallen by 89%. In 2050, the average cost of solar panels will drop by 63%. "China's 2050 solar Development Outlook" shows that "unit investment of solar power plants in 2035 and 2050 is expected to decrease by 37% and 53% respectively from the current level." Photovoltaic power generation must exist in the form of "solar + energy storage", "New Energy Outlook" said: The cost of energy storage batteries has dropped by 84% since 2010. Solar energy storage batteries are expected to fall by 64% by 2050. The World Energy Council's "Energy Storage Monitoring: 2019 Development Trends" shows: "By 2030, the installation cost of battery energy storage systems will fall by 50%-66%."
China's solar market has at least 20 years of rapid growth. "China Renewable Energy Outlook 2018" proposes that by 2050, China's renewable energy will account for more than 60% of primary energy consumption and 90% of electricity consumption; the proportion of electricity in primary energy consumption will range from Now less than 30% has increased to more than 60%. The installed capacity of photovoltaics needs to increase from the current 9.2% to 38.3% in 2050, and the power generation capacity to 19.3% from the current 2.5%. The installed capacity of photovoltaics will exceed 2 billion kilowatts by 2050, while the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is only 20 million kilowatts in 2019. "China's Photovoltaic Development Outlook for 2050" shows that it is expected that the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China will reach 730GW and 3000GW in 2025 and 2035, respectively, and the data will reach 5000GW by 2050, and photovoltaic will become China's largest power source. It accounted for about 40% of the national electricity consumption that year.
The international solar market has at least a 20-year period of rapid growth, and this market mainly belongs to Chinese solar companies. Bloomberg New Energy Finance released the 2019 "New Energy Outlook": By 2050, global power demand will increase by 62%, and global power demand is three times that of the current. Wind power and photovoltaics in the power structure will rise from the current 7% to 48% in 2050, while solar power will rise from the current 2% to 22% in the power generation structure. The proportion of Chinese companies in this market, taking the current Sungrow, Dongfang Risheng as an example, in 2019, "Sungrow's optical storage business is highly internationalized, and three-quarters of revenue comes from international business"; "In the first half of the year, Dongfang Risheng's module shipments were 2780MW, and the main sales revenue came from China and Ukraine. Among them, 33.11% of the revenue came from domestic sales; the other 66.89% came from export sales." It is believed that the proportion of Chinese companies in the international solar market will rise.
The development of the solar industry brings about the energy revolution, and the completion of the energy revolution will take at least 20 years. Historically, the substitution of coal for firewood and the substitution of oil for coal have taken hundreds of years. According to the Paris Agreement, the replacement of fossil energy with clean energy will take at least another 20 years. Not long ago, Academician Xie Kechang said: From 2020 to 2030, it will be a "transformation period in the energy field." In this stage, the increase in energy demand will require the replacement of coal energy by clean energy, especially renewable energy. From 2030 to 2050 is the "final period of the energy revolution", to achieve the ultimate goal of "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy. The energy revolution is not only a revolution in energy, but also a change in life. The Internet economy has a huge impact because it has exceeded the scope of the industrial revolution and affected people's lives and thinking. From one energy choice to multiple energy choices, from energy users to energy producers, solar power generation brings market opportunities for life change, at least 20 years.
During this period, China's photovoltaic industry has become the world's first industry in the past 10 years. Who will become the world's first solar company in the next 20 years?
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